Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c2b…9fba sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-5%) realized −$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$4
other 45% −$23
culture 4% +$2
tech 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +10.1% -0.4% 53% 41% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 39% -11.1%
≤90d 41 -28.3% -35.1% 37% 29% -26.7%
all 69 -1.5% -10.8% 54% 46% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -14.5%
10% -19.4% 38% -22.6%
15% -27.2% 26% -30.1%
20% -34.3% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage107d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 14 $5 −$4 -70%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $5 −$2 -39%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $2 −$1 -75%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand P Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 18 $2 −$1 -66%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $7 −$6 -85%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Mar 15 $2 +$7 +354%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $1 +$1 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 13h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 13h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $22 16h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $5 17h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $20 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 90¢ $8 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 58¢ $5 24h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 30h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $6 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $5 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.17 · official $26.40 (match) · 157 history records