Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c2b…36f4 crypto 605 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16,153 (-8%) realized −$16,153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%562W / 43L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day70.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,179
weather 41% −$306
other 0% +$7
sports 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 3% -10.5%
≤30d 154 -13.2% -21.5% 74% 4% -13.9%
≤90d 605 -2.0% -11.4% 93% 3% -10.2%
all 605 -2.0% -11.4% 93% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 3% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$163 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses562 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)605 / 605
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$335
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 605 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $314 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $511 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $385 +$28 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $354 +$38 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $498 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $334 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $204 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $761 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $395 −$17 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $655 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $451 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $359 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $475 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $325 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $568 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $262 −$20 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $744 +$36 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $726 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $59 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $610 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $157 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $286 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $458 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $737 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $206 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $522 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $442 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $278 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $411 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,017 −$443 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $312 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $539 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $281 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,025 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $979 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $129 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,265 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $748 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $943 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $297 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,311 +$42 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $378 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $597 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $414 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,160 +$26 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $305 18m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 18m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 18m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $208 43m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $162 43m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $37 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $55 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records