Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c30…b877 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$228 (-51%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +114.3% +93.9% 100% 100% +93.9%
≤30d 4 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -26.6%
≤90d 4 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -26.6%
all 4 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 50% -26.6%
10% -27.2% 50% -33.6%
15% -34.2% 50% -40.1%
20% -40.7% 25% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$127 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage14d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $126 +$144 +114%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $62 +$26 +42%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $247 −$245 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F SELL Hermine Esports Club 50¢ $271 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Hermine Esports Club 23¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Hermine Esports Club 23¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Hermine Esports Club 22¢ $68 3h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 72¢ $196 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $9 13d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner BUY CHAOS 70¢ $42 13d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner BUY CHAOS 70¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 70¢ $52 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records