Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c30…a7fc crypto 1454 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-3%) realized −$236 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate85%1209W / 214L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$31
14 days−$50
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$32
weather 16% +$1
other 5% −$1
tech 2% −$93
world 2% +$17
politics 1% −$20
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.2% -5.7% 84% 18% -3.3%
≤30d 231 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 15% -17.6%
≤90d 1090 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 16% -10.3%
all 1423 -1.7% -11.1% 85% 16% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 16% -8.9%
10% -19.6% 6% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 4% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1209 / 214
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1423 / 1454
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 57¢ 57¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? No 99¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes 94¢ 80¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 48¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 55¢ 10¢ $38 $7 −$31 (-82%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Tim Walz in jail by December 31? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 84¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $88 $3 −$85 (-97%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 +$17 +335%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $23 +$1 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $37 +$4 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 58¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $15 7h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 59¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 25h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 58¢ $1 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 57¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 57¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.20 · official $266.30 (match) · 3500 history records