Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c35…3ee6 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
politics 26% −$13
other 23% +$1
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 33 -5.8% -14.8% 58% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -11.4%
10% -22.9% 0% -19.9%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.7%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage477d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $66 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 11 $16 $0 -3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.30 on April 4? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 50-60 min? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $32 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $31 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $9 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $23 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $31 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $35 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $35 29d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 395d
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C BUY Yes 0¢ $0 405d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $1 416d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY No 92¢ $13 430d
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 430d
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 431d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $13 431d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 432d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records