Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c37…44fd crypto 911 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$206 (-1%) realized −$182 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate87%781W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day128.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$446
7 days+$446
14 days+$439
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$515
sports 8% +$422
other 2% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +19.7% +8.3% 75% 70% +42.8%
≤30d 901 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 28% -10.4%
≤90d 901 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 28% -10.4%
all 901 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 28% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 28% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 14% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 7% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses781 / 120
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)901 / 911
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day128.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ 94¢ $49 $66 +$17 (+35%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 68¢ $48 $65 +$17 (+35%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 54¢ 56¢ $48 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Colorado Rockies 72¢ 63¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ 62¢ $49 $31 −$18 (-37%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ 68¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 82¢ 25¢ $43 $13 −$30 (-70%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 38¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Under 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $30 +$34 +113%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $54 +$17 +31%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $55 +$41 +74%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $99 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $12 +$8 +69%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$61 +122%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 21 $29 +$7 +24%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $99 +$73 +74%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 21 $3 +$1 +25%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$16 -64%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +61%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $183 +$275 +150%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $5 +$3 +49%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $3 $0 +16%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $61 +$64 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $30 +$23 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $203 −$89 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $169 +$125 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -45%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $0 +$2 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $299 +$40 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +400%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $50 14m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 82¢ $44 17m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 72¢ $50 39m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ $49 45m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $19 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 72¢ $31 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $49 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $3 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 85¢ $4 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $49 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 81¢ $50 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 65¢ $49 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $50 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 38¢ $2 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 41¢ $4 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $2 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $49 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $49 3h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $12 3h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $4 16h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 17h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 72¢ $21 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 85¢ $3 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $85 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 66¢ $5 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $49 18h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) BUY Athletics 98¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.82 · official $363.91 (match) · 3500 history records