Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c3f…e6a2 sports 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2054 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$1,613 (-15%) realized −$1,967 · open +$354
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%132W / 171L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2054.4pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$336
other 34% +$2,203
crypto 1% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2054 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 +57.6% +42.6% 44% 37% -3.2%
≤30d 303 +57.6% +42.6% 44% 37% -3.2%
≤90d 303 +57.6% +42.6% 44% 37% -3.2%
all 303 +57.6% +42.6% 44% 37% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2054.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.6% 37% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here +28.9% 30% -12.5%
15% +16.5% 24% -20.9%
20% +5.1% 19% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +137% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$16 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,917
Realized−$1,967
Unrealized+$354
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses132 / 171
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions94
Markets (closed)303 / 389
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2054.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Maja Chwalinska 57¢ 90¢ $591 $936 +$345 (+58%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 98¢ $280 $283 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 55¢ 56¢ $208 $209 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? No 93¢ 94¢ $172 $174 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 69¢ 69¢ $164 $165 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 44¢ $122 $126 +$4 (+4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 87¢ 84¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 46¢ 46¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 92¢ 98¢ $59 $62 +$4 (+6%)
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 75¢ 80¢ $56 $60 +$3 (+6%)
Spread: Mexico (-4.5) Ecuador 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 99¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Denis Shapovalov 69¢ 56¢ $51 $42 −$10 (-19%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? No 96¢ 97¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? No 97¢ 98¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing Shintaro Mochizuki 68¢ 96¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 45¢ 46¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby Jenson Brooksby 74¢ 97¢ $14 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? No 73¢ 74¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Under 97¢ 89¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 60¢ 48¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Sweden 43¢ 44¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Pablo Carreno Busta 43¢ 44¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 55¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 61¢ 74¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $3 +$47 +1709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $58 +$2 +4%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 29 $36 +$19 +53%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $68 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 29 $99 −$42 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5) Jun 29 $32 −$17 -54%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $40 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $20 −$4 -22%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $35 $0 -1%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $66 +$9 +14%
Spread: Goiás EC (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +11%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $47 −$26 -54%
Spread: Goiás EC (-2.5) Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $120 −$50 -42%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $2 +$3 +112%
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 +$3 +34%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $64 +$11 +18%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $19 +$1 +7%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $4 +$1 +17%
Spread: SC Recife (-2.5) Jun 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $95 −$85 -90%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 66¢ $3 0m
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 85¢ $4 6m
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 78¢ $4 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 41¢ $2 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 41¢ $2 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 4¢ $0 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 64¢ $3 11m
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Dalibor Svrcina 3¢ $0 11m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 84¢ $4 11m
Milan: Daniel Rincon vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 61¢ $3 13m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $2 27m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $1 27m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $3 27m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $3 27m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 44¢ $2 28m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 28¢ $0 29m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 28¢ $1 29m
Wimbledon WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 3¢ $0 29m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Jessica Pegula 96¢ $5 30m
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Luca Van Assche 4¢ $0 30m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Denis Shapovalov 58¢ $3 31m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $1 31m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 15¢ $1 31m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $1 31m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $2 31m
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Luca Van Assche 5¢ $0 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 42¢ $2 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 42¢ $2 33m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 44¢ $2 33m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 74¢ $3 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,916.89 · official $2,896.52 (match) · 3500 history records