Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c46…5239 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$483 (-13%) realized −$546 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$411
7 days−$235
14 days−$254
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$208
other 36% −$325
sports 21% +$237
world 3% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 38% -22.5%
≤30d 31 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 39% -26.5%
≤90d 58 -17.5% -25.3% 38% 34% -23.4%
all 58 -17.5% -25.3% 38% 34% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -23.4%
10% -32.5% 34% -30.7%
15% -39.0% 33% -37.4%
20% -45.0% 22% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$35 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized−$546
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions16
Markets (closed)58 / 75
History coverage57d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $135 $270 +$135 (+100%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $68 $85 +$18 (+26%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $58 +$14 (+31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $52 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $33 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $19 −$8 (-29%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 2¢ $60 $3 −$58 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$45 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $82 +$53 +65%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $180 +$109 +61%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$17 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $170 +$152 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $140 −$92 -66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$37 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $72 +$78 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$31 +64%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $36 +$34 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $43 +$18 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 23 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 22 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 09 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $158 −$52 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 29 $36 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $72 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 29 $170 −$35 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 28 $122 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 28 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 28 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 28 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 28 $31 −$26 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 28 $16 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 28 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 24 $42 +$56 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 24 $73 −$47 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 24 $37 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 24 $74 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 24 $50 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $69 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $137 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $45 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $52 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $82 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $290 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $8 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $80 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $23 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $23 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $47 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $62 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $33 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $49 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $87 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $36 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $35 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $170 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.31 · official $752.31 (match) · 263 history records