Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c46…781d crypto 891 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,958 (-5%) realized −$4,958 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate65%580W / 312L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,229
7 days−$2,197
14 days−$2,197
30 days−$2,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,005
world 0% +$4
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -1.7% -11.0% 94% 1% -13.8%
≤30d 86 -1.7% -11.0% 94% 1% -13.8%
≤90d 226 -4.9% -14.0% 78% 24% -12.6%
all 892 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 32% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 32% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 16% -21.6%
15% -31.6% 9% -29.2%
20% -38.3% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,958
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses580 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)892 / 891
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 892 Trades
no open positions (121 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grok 4.20 released by April 20? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $183 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $190 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $179 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $162 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $161 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $156 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,172 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,161 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $1,150 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $1,134 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,123 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,108 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $1,097 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $1,080 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,071 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $1,061 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,038 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $1,029 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $1,014 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $998 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,007 −$1,006 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $999 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $798 −$796 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $790 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $769 +$21 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $748 +$22 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $733 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $713 +$21 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $699 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $689 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $668 +$22 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $639 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $618 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $607 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $590 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $584 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $569 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $562 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $556 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $551 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $525 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $510 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $498 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $488 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $479 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $183 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $184 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $190 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $190 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $179 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $161 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $156 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $151 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $150 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,185 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,172 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,161 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,150 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,134 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,123 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,097 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,080 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,071 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,061 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,038 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,029 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,014 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records