Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c46…a946 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%23W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$3
politics 21% −$3
world 15% $0
crypto 12% $0
tech 10% −$1
economics 5% $0
sports 4% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 49 -2.7% -12.0% 2% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 130 -3.0% -12.2% 10% 0% -12.7%
all 237 -2.5% -11.8% 10% 1% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -12.0%
10% -20.2% 0% -20.5%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses23 / 214
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 60,000 and 65,000? Yes 88¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -10%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 27 $2 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 25 $1 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? May 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d May 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $3 $0 -1%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1 50m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $1 52m
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 82¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 25h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 25h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 80¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 3d
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL No 90¢ $1 5d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 95¢ $1 5d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading BUY Yes 88¢ $1 5d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 39¢ $0 5d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? SELL No 92¢ $1 7d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 7d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? BUY No 94¢ $1 7d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 73¢ $1 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 72¢ $1 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 98¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 505 history records