Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c4d…b0ed crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-9%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$564
sports 3% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.0% -20.4% 58% 42% -21.0%
≤30d 31 -12.0% -20.4% 58% 42% -21.0%
≤90d 31 -12.0% -20.4% 58% 42% -21.0%
all 31 -12.0% -20.4% 58% 42% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 42% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 26% -28.6%
15% -35.0% 13% -35.5%
20% -41.3% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$84 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $129 +$77 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $56 −$11 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $53 +$85 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $456 −$275 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $203 +$60 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $304 +$59 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $411 −$88 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $311 +$97 +31%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$98 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $28 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records