Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c4f…76fd other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$10
politics 30% −$3
world 17% +$2
sports 9% $0
economics 8% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -1.8% -11.1% 20% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage234d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 22 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $300 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $198 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 19 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $412 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $72 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $489 +$3 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $477 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 13 $490 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $491 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 31 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 14m
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 5h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 9h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 9h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 11h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 13h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 17h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 18h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 19h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 19h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 24h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $14 140d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $11 140d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $14 140d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $11 140d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $13 147d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 147d
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 99¢ $12 147d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 97¢ $12 147d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 98¢ $12 147d
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $12 147d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $17 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.07 · official $219.07 (match) · 76 history records