Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6c54…da75 sports 492 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65,165 (-23%) realized −$65,302 · open +$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%347W / 144L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$566per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$578est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$2,837
other 22% −$9,351
crypto 19% +$6,517
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 36% -17.0%
≤30d 79 -11.0% -19.4% 59% 42% -9.0%
≤90d 323 -0.7% -10.2% 68% 38% -8.1%
all 491 -1.1% -10.6% 71% 35% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 35% -11.4%
10% -19.1% 24% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 18% -27.6%
20% -34.1% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$279 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,240
Realized−$65,302
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses347 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$578
Open positions1
Markets (closed)491 / 492
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$566
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 89¢ 100¢ $1,103 $1,240 +$137 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $227 +$84 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $583 +$434 +74%
Will England win? Jun 18 $939 −$60 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $182 −$177 -97%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$75 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$17 +62%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,171 −$805 -69%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $257 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 17 $326 −$326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $695 −$695 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1,900 −$826 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $379 +$37 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$27 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,372 +$577 +17%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $2,468 +$903 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,013 +$456 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,739 +$273 +16%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $277 +$49 +18%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $231 +$46 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $81 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$13 +79%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will Blues win? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $990 +$9 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,144 +$452 +14%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4,465 +$837 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $751 −$751 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $140 −$114 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $44 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $140 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $140 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $69 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $69 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $28 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 88¢ $6 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 88¢ $112 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 88¢ $170 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 88¢ $2 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 88¢ $162 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 88¢ $162 54m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 57¢ $311 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 41¢ $53 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 41¢ $85 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 41¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 41¢ $50 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 41¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $313 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,240.20 · official $1,240.20 (match) · 3500 history records