Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6C 0x6c54…f85c other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$11
politics 29% −$7
sports 8% +$5
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 94 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 5% -9.6%
all 101 -1.5% -10.9% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage115d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $199 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $306 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $572 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $345 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $365 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $341 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $323 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $401 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $148 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $148 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 23d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $179 23d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $179 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 26d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 29d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 29d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $143 30d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $143 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records