Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6C 0x6c58…72e6 crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$137 (+22%) realized +$141 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 46L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$19
other 35% +$138
tech 16% +$17
world 4% +$2
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 50% +52.8%
≤30d 8 -19.5% -27.1% 38% 38% -2.0%
≤90d 15 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 40% +16.4%
all 93 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 38% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% +12.3%
10% -21.9% 24% +1.6%
15% -29.4% 20% -8.2%
20% -36.3% 12% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage117d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 72¢ 54¢ $18 $13 −$4 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $15 +$12 +80%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +11%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $15 +$6 +41%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $25 +$9 +38%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 27 $80 +$51 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 09 $15 −$4 -30%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 03 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 01 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 01 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 01 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Sal Da Vinci win Sanremo 2026? Mar 01 $50 +$87 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 28 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 28 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 28 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 28 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Feb 28 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 28 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 28 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 28 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 28 $4 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $27 2h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 2h
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 13d
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 22d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $29 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 29d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 29d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 33d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 33d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 33d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY Yes 70¢ $15 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 64d
Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 68d
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 68d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 88d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? SELL No 100¢ $131 91d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 92d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY No 39¢ $20 92d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 104d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY No 63¢ $50 105d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 105d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 105d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 105d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.01 · official $13.01 (match) · 282 history records