Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c59…8831 politics 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-0%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%29W / 171L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 57% −$42
politics 17% −$21
other 9% −$21
world 8% −$9
crypto 3% −$22
sports 3% −$1
tech 1% −$8
finance 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 200 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses29 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage361d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $13 $0 -2%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $400 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $400 −$1 -0%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 13 $459 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 11 $81 $0 +0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $457 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $457 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $458 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 09 $109 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $109 $0 +0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Pinto win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $469 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $470 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $443 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $444 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $468 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $469 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $475 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $476 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $465 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $466 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $478 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $479 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $450 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 52¢ $13 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 52¢ $3 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 52¢ $11 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 35d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 35d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $399 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $400 45d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Down 49¢ $3 66d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Up 51¢ $459 66d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 51¢ $459 66d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Down 49¢ $3 66d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 48¢ $81 69d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 48¢ $81 69d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 10? SELL Up 47¢ $10 69d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 10? BUY Up 47¢ $10 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 76¢ $453 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 539 history records