Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6C 0x6c59…ad51 sports 488 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%207W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$116
14 days+$108
30 days−$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$52
other 7% +$159
crypto 5% −$312
politics 1% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +35.2% +22.3% 73% 73% -2.3%
≤30d 112 -28.7% -35.5% 32% 32% -28.6%
≤90d 363 -18.9% -26.7% 38% 36% -13.2%
all 488 -7.3% -16.2% 42% 41% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 41% -10.3%
10% -24.2% 39% -18.9%
15% -31.5% 38% -26.7%
20% -38.2% 37% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$37 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses207 / 281
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions0
Markets (closed)488 / 488
History coverage446d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 488 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $123 +$18 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 −$48 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $315 +$37 +12%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $226 +$89 +40%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $186 +$40 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $147 +$42 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $114 +$33 +29%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $38 +$75 +197%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$29 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 09 $39 −$38 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $102 −$50 -49%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $92 −$90 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $50 −$8 -16%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 06 $101 −$99 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $102 +$135 +133%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $50 +$72 +145%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $71 +$36 +51%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 04 $152 +$65 +43%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $51 +$65 +129%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 03 $101 +$164 +163%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $141 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $123 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $48 44h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $200 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $315 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Scotland 100¢ $315 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Scotland 71¢ $226 3d
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY Australia 82¢ $186 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $189 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $147 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $114 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $114 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 33¢ $38 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $38 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1223 history records