Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c59…d892 crypto 555 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,178 (-6%) realized −$11,180 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%189W / 365L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43,432
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 44% -23.9%
≤30d 164 -35.3% -41.5% 37% 32% -31.1%
≤90d 554 -36.6% -42.7% 34% 30% -34.8%
all 554 -36.6% -42.7% 34% 30% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 30% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 26% -41.1%
15% -53.2% 21% -46.8%
20% -57.8% 17% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$197 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$11,180
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses189 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)554 / 555
History coverage42d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $459 +$65 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $305 −$33 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $326 −$26 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $125 +$102 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $110 +$117 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $88 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $231 −$148 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $121 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $211 +$28 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $199 +$49 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $249 +$122 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $361 −$117 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $309 +$109 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $995 −$587 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $273 +$312 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $271 −$33 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $1,292 −$1,292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $370 −$162 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $1,433 −$1,035 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $620 −$406 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $518 −$445 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $315 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $111 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $313 +$213 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $256 −$49 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $238 +$126 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $1,270 −$225 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $825 −$609 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $1,296 +$184 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $1,197 −$145 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $620 +$167 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $1,149 −$113 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $1,600 −$51 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $632 −$112 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $523 +$112 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $928 +$748 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $1,036 −$672 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $358 −$170 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $494 −$368 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $1,281 +$371 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $412 −$225 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $303 +$332 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $617 −$588 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $157 +$74 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $254 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $223 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $46 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.85 · official $198.15 · 2020 history records