trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -2.6% | -11.8% | 0% | 0% | -13.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 20% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 23 | +5.6% | -4.4% | 57% | 13% | +0.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.4% | 13% | +0.2% |
| 10% | -13.6% | 13% | -9.4% |
| 15% | -21.9% | 13% | -18.1% |
| 20% | -29.6% | 13% | -26.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $24 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 27 | $57 | −$7 | -12% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 25 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $29 | $0 | -2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 24 | $53 | +$5 | +9% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 | Mar 20 | $10 | −$2 | -24% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 20 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Furman vs. Wofford | Mar 20 | $4 | +$4 | +100% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 | Mar 20 | $177 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 28? | Mar 01 | $110 | +$67 | +61% |
| Cleveland State vs. Wright State | Feb 28 | $60 | +$54 | +89% |
| North Dakota vs. St. Thomas - Minnesota | Feb 28 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum hit $7,000.00 by March 31? | Feb 27 | $92 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Feb 22 | $9 | $0 | +0% |