Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c5c…df53 finance 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,115 (+0%) realized +$5,693 · open −$4,578
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate78%392W / 112L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$3,048per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$15,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$4,579
world 24% −$64
crypto 16% +$882
other 13% −$107
finance 13% +$4
sports 0% +$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 385 -2.2% -11.5% 79% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 504 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 3% -9.5%
all 504 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$15,482
Realized+$5,693
Unrealized−$4,578
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses392 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)504 / 499
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$3,048
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $7,732 $12,309 +$4,577 (+59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $7,732 $3,153 −$4,579 (-59%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 26? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 25 $117 −$9 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $2,629 +$3 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11,772 +$26 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $9,190 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $7,035 +$7 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? Jun 25 $19 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? Jun 25 $18 −$1 -7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 25? Jun 25 $18 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14,985 +$15 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$1 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 24? Jun 24 $39 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $2,206 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 24? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 24? Jun 24 $126 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,626 +$2 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24? Jun 24 $78 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $164 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $12,248 +$52 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,121 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -35%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,113 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 23? Jun 23 $143 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,420 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 23? Jun 23 $117 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,163 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $2,220 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 24? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 41¢ $27 12m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 40¢ $10 14m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 40¢ $17 14m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 41¢ $80 22m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 45¢ $90 30m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $1,647 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $349 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 100¢ $63 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $410 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $5,190 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $995 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 100¢ $29 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 100¢ $24 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 100¢ $1,678 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $19 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 100¢ $836 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,481.72 · official $15,483.27 (match) · 3500 history records