Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c5d…4269 crypto 1538 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$420 (-4%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate77%1191W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 55% -16.3%
≤30d 1167 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 58% -12.4%
≤90d 1538 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 52% -11.7%
all 1538 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 52% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 52% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 28% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 16% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1191 / 347
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1538 / 1538
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1538 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records