Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c5f…dcde sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤30d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤90d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -14.2%
all 4 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 50% -14.2%
10% -14.8% 50% -22.4%
15% -23.1% 50% -29.9%
20% -30.6% 50% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$57 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Under 4.5 51¢ 50¢ $171 $169 −$2 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Svajda 51¢ 50¢ $153 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Bellucci 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Over 4.5 50¢ 50¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Humbert vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $145 +$86 +60%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 24 $237 −$69 -29%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $6 +$5 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4.5 50¢ $47 1h
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Under 4.5 51¢ $173 1h
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Svajda 51¢ $52 1h
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 50¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Svajda 51¢ $103 1h
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 50¢ $102 1h
Humbert vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $145 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $237 4d
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $44 11d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 53¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.77 · official $514.77 (match) · 14 history records