Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c64…ac0b world 22 markets active 8d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$192 (-2%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$538per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$998
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$552
finance 13% −$520
other 4% +$78
economics 3% −$108
tech 2% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 32% -11.2%
≤90d 22 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 32% -11.2%
all 22 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 32% -11.2%
10% -21.5% 27% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.1% 23% -27.5%
20% -36.0% 18% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$629) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$393 vs −$289 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage11d
Avg bet$538
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $370 −$370 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $648 −$110 -17%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 19 $600 −$552 -92%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $463 +$2,324 +502%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $100 −$60 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $390 +$231 +59%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $340 +$150 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $350 +$100 +29%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $300 −$108 -36%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $652 +$43 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $420 +$78 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $560 −$560 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,345 −$137 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,800 +$213 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $918 −$911 -99%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $194 −$186 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $629 +$398 +63%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +189%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 11 $37 −$36 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $9 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $14 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $46 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $14 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $248 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $0 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $36 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $2 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $151 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $385 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $98 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $550 10d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes $45 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 497 history records