Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c64…20ed crypto 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$661 (-18%) realized −$621 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%140W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day200.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +5.2% -4.9% 83% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 168 +5.2% -4.9% 83% 50% -13.2%
≤90d 168 +5.2% -4.9% 83% 50% -13.2%
all 168 +5.2% -4.9% 83% 50% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover200.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 50% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 1% -21.5%
15% -22.3% 1% -29.1%
20% -29.9% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$621
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses140 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day200.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 90¢ 50¢ $45 $25 −$20 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 89¢ 50¢ $44 $25 −$20 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $71 −$21 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $69 −$19 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $81 −$31 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $79 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $72 −$22 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$23 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $71 −$21 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$23 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $70 −$20 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $88 −$38 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $65 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$19 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $75 −$25 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $80 −$30 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 368 history records