Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c65…c003 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized −$38 · open +$63
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$22
sports 42% +$66
crypto 3% +$30
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.5% +2.7% 63% 56% -2.0%
≤30d 27 +13.5% +2.7% 63% 56% -2.0%
≤90d 27 +13.5% +2.7% 63% 56% -2.0%
all 27 +13.5% +2.7% 63% 56% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.7% 56% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.1% 44% -11.4%
15% -16.1% 26% -19.9%
20% -24.3% 26% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)27 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 97¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 57¢ 84¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+46%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 70¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 +$45 +88%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $80 +$18 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$75 -75%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$19 -95%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 +$9 +19%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$13 +27%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$5 +16%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $4 +$8 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$18 +88%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$12 +117%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$9 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$7 +21%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $80 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 84¢ $50 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 79¢ $20 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 28¢ $9 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $30 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $7 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.49 · official $248.49 (match) · 82 history records