Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c70…7aea world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$1
world 25% −$8
other 16% +$2
sports 6% −$4
weather 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 12% -10.7%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 7% -10.7%
≤90d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 4% -9.9%
all 35 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -10.3%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage491d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $7 −$2 -28%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $76 −$3 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $124 −$4 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $175 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $143 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $178 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $41 +$1 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $220 $0 +0%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4? Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona State vs. Arizona Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $17 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? Mar 04 $11 +$5 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $21 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $14 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $34 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $36 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $12 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.23 · official $37.23 (match) · 125 history records