Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c76…42dd sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-19%) realized −$11 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$21
sports 37% −$4
world 11% −$15
crypto 5% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -47.3% -52.3% 26% 26% -17.4%
≤30d 19 -47.3% -52.3% 26% 26% -17.4%
≤90d 19 -47.3% -52.3% 26% 26% -17.4%
all 19 -47.3% -52.3% 26% 26% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.3% 26% -17.4%
10% -56.9% 26% -25.3%
15% -61.1% 26% -32.5%
20% -64.9% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $21 +$12 +58%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$12 -78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $3 −$2 -60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$3 +54%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $33 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $21 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 15¢ $3 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $16 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $2 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $3 22h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 25h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 38h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 46h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 58¢ $8 46h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $11 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.39 · official $54.39 (match) · 39 history records