Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c78…f71b crypto 933 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,180 (+8%) realized +$9,181 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%518W / 414L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,898
other 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +1.4% -8.2% 51% 51% +10.5%
≤30d 377 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 54% -6.3%
≤90d 932 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 53% -8.1%
all 932 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 53% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 53% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 47% -16.9%
15% -32.0% 37% -25.0%
20% -38.7% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$97 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$9,181
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses518 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)932 / 933
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 932 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 85¢ 84¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$79 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $279 +$52 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $373 +$590 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$287 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $267 +$68 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$70 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$134 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $157 +$179 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$37 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $48 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $53 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $44 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $60 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $279 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $48 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $24 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $121 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $28 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $70 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $53 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $124 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $61 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $92 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $35 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.91 · official $42.42 · 3500 history records