Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c7a…7625 sports 421 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,962 (-8%) realized −$28,962 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%232W / 189L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1,781est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$787
7 days−$787
14 days−$787
30 days−$4,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$22,978
other 20% −$7,352
crypto 5% +$512
politics 2% −$795
economics 2% −$33
world 1% +$884
tech 0% +$361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.0% -55.6% 0% 0% -49.6%
≤30d 15 -36.5% -42.5% 27% 20% -62.2%
≤90d 331 -23.7% -30.9% 45% 41% -37.8%
all 421 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 48% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 48% -16.8%
10% -24.5% 37% -24.8%
15% -31.8% 31% -32.0%
20% -38.5% 24% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$440 vs −$695 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28,962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses232 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,781
Open positions0
Markets (closed)421 / 421
History coverage474d
Avg bet$870
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 421 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 23 $1,010 −$20 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $767 −$767 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $191 +$16 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $91 +$100 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $468 −$467 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi May 26 $600 −$600 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $560 −$560 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $344 +$456 +133%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $940 −$940 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $330 −$330 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $565 −$565 -100%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri May 26 $330 +$670 +203%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $705 −$705 -100%
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone May 26 $440 −$440 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $306 −$302 -99%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 23 $196 −$59 -30%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $820 +$178 +22%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $712 +$87 +12%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Max Schoenhaus May 18 $640 +$360 +56%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $719 +$613 +85%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $351 −$351 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 18 $326 +$44 +14%
Will Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 17 $306 +$737 +240%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $103 +$69 +67%
Will FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? May 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $550 +$450 +82%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $270 +$730 +270%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 17 $726 +$464 +64%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maria Sakkari vs Peyton Stearns May 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,482 −$1,482 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 06 $143 −$33 -23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 06 $253 −$250 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $204 −$200 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $304 −$296 -98%
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka Apr 29 $1,024 −$1,019 -100%
Jiujiang: Yunchaokete Bu vs Daniel Masur Apr 29 $154 −$150 -98%
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 29 $203 +$241 +119%
Aix en Provence: Grigor Dimitrov vs Pol Martin Tiffon Apr 29 $441 −$441 -100%
Shymkent 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej Nedic Apr 29 $434 +$266 +61%
Cagliari: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Federico Cina Apr 29 $304 −$300 -99%
La Bisbal: Tamara Korpatsch vs Jil Teichmann Apr 29 $240 −$240 -100%
Shymkent 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Samuele Pieri Apr 29 $192 −$192 -100%
Ostrava: Max Schoenhaus vs Jay Clarke Apr 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez Apr 29 $476 −$476 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 29 $264 −$264 -100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 29 $342 −$342 -100%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 27 $300 +$517 +172%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Calvin Hemery Apr 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $991 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $767 17h
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden BUY Switzerland 92¢ $191 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi SELL Francisco Comesana 100¢ $191 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Francisco Comesana 47¢ $91 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $30 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $2 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $192 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $11 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $5 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $26 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $57 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 38¢ $57 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 40¢ $81 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Facundo Acosta 33¢ $7 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $174 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $13 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $10 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $3 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $208 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $34 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $3 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $75 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $74 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $2 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $4 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 30¢ $1 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $560 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2141 history records