Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c7c…f44d sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$76 (+50%) realized +$75 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip
Net edge+83%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$68
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$99
other 45% −$9
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+82.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +63.2% +47.6% 42% 42% +71.7%
≤30d 15 +102.0% +82.8% 47% 47% +72.6%
≤90d 15 +102.0% +82.8% 47% 47% +72.6%
all 15 +102.0% +82.8% 47% 47% +72.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +82.8% 47% +72.6%
10% +65.3% 47% +56.1%
15% +49.3% 40% +41.0%
20% +34.7% 40% +27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +194% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $25 +$26 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$32 +211%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $20 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.14 · official $58.15 (match) · 29 history records