Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c7d…4cc3 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized +$135 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%50W / 82L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$39
14 days+$1
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$50
world 11% −$93
politics 7% −$227
economics 4% +$174
culture 3% +$184
tech 1% −$49
crypto 1% −$59
finance 1% +$11
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.2% -46.8% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤30d 9 -86.0% -87.4% 11% 11% -21.0%
≤90d 48 -34.2% -40.4% 27% 27% -40.1%
all 132 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 35% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 35% -8.2%
10% -11.3% 30% -17.0%
15% -19.9% 24% -25.0%
20% -27.7% 22% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$24 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses50 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)132 / 161
History coverage234d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $70 $115 +$45 (+64%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $80 $47 −$33 (-41%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $25 $46 +$21 (+83%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 10¢ 71¢ $5 $34 +$29 (+590%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $75 $34 −$41 (-55%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 14¢ 78¢ $5 $28 +$23 (+461%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 73¢ 52¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Yes 44¢ 30¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-30%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $34 $8 −$27 (-78%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 39¢ 19¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 35¢ 2¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-96%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-98%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $250 +$44 +18%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 13 $5 +$10 +194%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $25 +$29 +117%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? May 11 $5 −$3 -64%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $5 −$3 -68%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? May 11 $5 −$2 -40%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 02 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $8 +$6 +72%
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 18 $5 −$3 -64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $5 +$22 +437%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 16 $5 +$1 +28%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $25 +$18 +72%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? Apr 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Apr 04 $45 −$45 -100%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 04 $75 −$75 -100%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$4 +89%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$7 +144%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $9 +$22 +251%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $25 +$8 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $92 −$23 -25%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 31 $5 −$3 -58%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Mar 25 $19 −$10 -54%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 45h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 35¢ $19 29d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $26 29d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 30d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 34d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 35d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 35d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 35d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 35d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 35d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 35d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 58¢ $8 58d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap SELL Yes 8¢ $2 58d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY No 19¢ $5 58d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 19¢ $5 58d
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 BUY Yes 15¢ $5 58d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 14¢ $5 58d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? BUY No 64¢ $5 58d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 58d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 58d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 66d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap BUY Yes 22¢ $5 66d
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 66d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 71d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.06 · official $480.06 (match) · 487 history records