Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c80…89b2 sports 12 markets active 2d ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$178 (-37%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$168
sports 28% +$5
crypto 7% −$1
politics 6% $0
economics 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 50% -50.5%
≤30d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 50% -50.5%
≤90d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 50% -50.5%
all 9 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 33% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 33% -44.1%
10% -23.0% 33% -49.4%
15% -30.5% 22% -54.3%
20% -37.3% 22% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage224d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek Jun 18 $35 +$25 +71%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$12 +27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 −$180 -99%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 07 $35 −$1 -4%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 07 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records