Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c81…7e32 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
other 32% −$1
politics 15% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 -14.1% -22.2% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -5.2% -14.3% 31% 6% -8.9%
all 42 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -9.2%
10% -20.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage475d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $61 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $51 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $25 −$2 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $33 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $29 +$5 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $60 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 11 $16 $0 -3%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Everton be relegated? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $16 $0 -2%
Solana above $130 on March 21? Mar 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $5 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $15 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $16 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $6 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $0 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $1 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $4 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $34 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 32d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 62¢ $16 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records