Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6c83…c6f8 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$248 (+4%) realized +$248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%51W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$14
crypto 29% +$262
sports 9% −$1
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 56 -3.1% -12.3% 91% 2% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -6.3%
10% -20.7% 2% -15.3%
15% -28.3% 2% -23.5%
20% -35.4% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.54 per $1 lost it wins $4.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses51 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage480d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 22 $29 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Apr 22 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 in 2025? Feb 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 27 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $870 in November? Dec 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on November 26? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 26? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 25? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°F or below on November 26 Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $102,000 on November 25? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.70 on November 24? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 November 17-23? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12PM ET Nov 19 $304 +$304 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $1,170 +$1 +0%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12? Nov 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $6B one day after launch? Nov 18 $10 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $8B one day after launch? Nov 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $2,999 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 10 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on July 16? Aug 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? May 03 $34 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Apr 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $604 +$10 +2%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $29 29d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 61d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 150 history records