Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c87…7dc1 crypto 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+7%) realized +$281 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%99W / 119L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$233
other 3% +$2
sports 2% +$25
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +51.1% +36.7% 75% 75% +71.8%
≤30d 12 +83.8% +66.3% 67% 67% +85.4%
≤90d 218 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 39% -0.3%
all 218 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 39% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -0.3%
10% -28.9% 33% -9.9%
15% -35.7% 25% -18.6%
20% -42.0% 18% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses99 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage86d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $139 +$41 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $121 +$53 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $45 +$51 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $26 +$61 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$30 +562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 18 $17 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5 Apr 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 05 $21 +$66 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 31 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 31 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 31 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 31 $53 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 31 $19 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 31 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$6 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 30 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 30 $11 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 30 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 30 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 30 $5 +$8 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 30 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 29 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 29 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 29 $63 −$23 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 29 $88 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $94 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.10 · official $122.10 (match) · 761 history records