Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c8b…40cd sports 366 markets active 2h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%32W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$12
politics 26% −$14
other 25% −$22
economics 6% −$6
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$4
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 79 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 91 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 365 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses32 / 333
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)365 / 366
History coverage655d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $63 $0 +1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $55 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -3%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $99 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 08 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $21 $0 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 2h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $42 2h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 7h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 15h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $61 15h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $61 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $54 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $54 29h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $39 29h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $40 33h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $60 34h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $60 38h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 38h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 42h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $58 43h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $58 47h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 47h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.94 · official $56.94 (match) · 1354 history records