Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c8d…30a5 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized +$8 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$21
other 38% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.2% -31.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -24.2% -31.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -24.2% -31.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
all 4 -24.2% -31.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -38.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -44.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -49.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? South Africa 55¢ 50¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-9%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Bangladesh 97¢ 50¢ $41 $21 −$20 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $288 +$2 +0%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Belize Jun 27 $159 +$2 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $107 −$5 -4%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia Jun 27 $116 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the to BUY Bangladesh 99¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the to BUY Bangladesh 97¢ $31 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Who wins the to BUY South Africa 55¢ $57 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 7h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Belize BUY Bahamas 99¢ $50 17h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Belize BUY Bahamas 99¢ $99 17h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Belize BUY Bahamas 99¢ $10 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies $2 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies $2 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 45¢ $11 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 45¢ $4 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 45¢ $3 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 45¢ $13 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 45¢ $34 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 46¢ $11 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 51¢ $1 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 52¢ $14 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $20 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $10 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $10 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $6 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $13 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $10 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $20 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 51¢ $14 19h
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia BUY Czechia 99¢ $30 23h
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia BUY Czechia 98¢ $21 23h
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia BUY Czechia 98¢ $9 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.93 · official $71.93 (match) · 37 history records