Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c8f…b937 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$3
world 25% −$2
tech 15% −$1
other 14% −$1
culture 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
sports 4% +$67
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +3.0% -6.8% 31% 19% -8.5%
≤90d 20 +2.4% -7.4% 35% 15% -8.5%
all 51 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -8.8%
10% -18.0% 6% -17.5%
15% -25.9% 4% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage405d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 08 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 1-7? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 08 $685 −$1 -0%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 05 $217 +$78 +36%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $450 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $435 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 21? Jun 02 $27 +$6 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11? Jan 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? Jan 05 $9 $0 +2%
Will Erik Seidel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on November 23? Dec 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 14? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Nov 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in August? Oct 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jul 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $175 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 28 $168 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? May 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? May 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 15 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $744 16d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $745 16d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $713 16d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $654 16d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $685 16d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $12 17d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $712 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $708 19d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $500 19d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $459 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $245 19d
Will Solana dip to $10 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $449 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 22d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 22d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $447 22d
Will Solana dip to $10 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $414 22d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $435 22d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $217 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.03 · official $41.03 (match) · 138 history records