Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6c92…9627
world · 55 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$846 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,531 · open −$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,019
Realized+$2,531
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage14d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 9 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,570
7 days+$3,050
14 days+$2,531
30 days+$2,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 58¢ 60¢ $180 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $180 $173 −$7 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $180 $155 −$25 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 39¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 42¢ 0¢ $277 $0 −$277 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Rafael Jodar 21¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$37 +509%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $180 +$329 +183%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $870 +$407 +47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,279 +$1,740 +136%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 +$216 +211%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $182 +$73 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $364 +$97 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $263 −$122 -47%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $183 −$14 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $66 +$71 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$12 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $172 −$170 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $335 +$154 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $335 −$150 -45%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $397 −$292 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $360 −$74 -20%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $180 +$11 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $723 −$384 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$49 +81%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $28 −$6 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $95 −$60 -63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $330 +$219 +66%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $940 −$401 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $300 +$8 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 10 $377 −$86 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $949 +$989 +104%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $180 −$33 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $180 +$87 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $180 +$139 +77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $208 −$158 -76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $180 −$139 -78%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $540 +$154 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $180 +$935 +519%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $94 −$92 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $180 +$63 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $140 −$138 -98%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 01 $180 −$41 -23%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $79 −$34 -43%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $282 −$277 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% +$3,513
other 22% −$218
sports 14% −$816
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $184 9m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $106 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 77¢ $422 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $433 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $991 55m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $240 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $55 57m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 57m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $180 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $55 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $50 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $180 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 92¢ $318 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 92¢ $254 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $50 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $51 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $52 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $52 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $180 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $113 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $52 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $51 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $52 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +17.9% +6.7% 48% 42% +28.3%
≤30d 46 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 39% +20.3%
≤90d 46 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 39% +20.3%
all 46 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 39% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 39% +20.3%
10% -11.3% 37% +8.8%
15% -19.9% 30% -1.7%
20% -27.7% 22% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,019.14 · official $1,019.14 (match) · 223 history records