Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c92…d0a1 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% $0
politics 22% $0
world 21% −$8
crypto 12% +$1
tech 7% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 20% 0% -14.2%
≤30d 9 -11.5% -20.0% 11% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 9 -11.5% -20.0% 11% 0% -13.0%
all 31 -2.8% -12.1% 26% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage326d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$5 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $23 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Aug 10 $73 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Jul 31 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Jul 30 $66 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $65 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $66 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $66 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $11 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $7 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $22 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 27h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $38 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $35 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $23 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $11 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $30 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $41 9d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $66 321d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.82 · official $6.82 (match) · 106 history records