trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 17% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 31% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 31% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 26 | +44.2% | +30.4% | 35% | 4% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +30.4% | 4% | -9.8% |
| 10% | +18.0% | 4% | -18.5% |
| 15% | +6.6% | 4% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -3.9% | 4% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 25 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 18 | $120 | −$8 | -6% |
| GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 | Mar 17 | $170 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 17 | $6 | $0 | +7% |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) | Mar 16 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | Mar 16 | $107 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 29 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 15 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | Jun 27 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 15 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? | Jun 14 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 14 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Jun 13 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 12 | $19 | $0 | -0% |