Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c97…5693 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
sports 29% +$2
other 29% −$8
politics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 26 +44.2% +30.4% 35% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 4% -9.8%
10% +18.0% 4% -18.5%
15% +6.6% 4% -26.4%
20% -3.9% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage382d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 -7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $120 −$8 -6%
GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $6 $0 +7%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 16 $29 $0 +0%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $2 $0 -0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $29 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $29 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $16 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $16 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $35 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $35 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $7 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $19 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.01 · official $31.01 (match) · 83 history records