Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c98…d6c6 crypto 1718 markets active 3h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$396 (-9%) realized −$396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%1079W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$8
14 days−$33
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$249
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 42% -15.1%
≤30d 658 -4.4% -13.5% 58% 58% -14.4%
≤90d 1718 -5.1% -14.1% 63% 63% -14.4%
all 1718 -5.1% -14.1% 63% 63% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 63% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 63% -22.6%
15% -29.8% 41% -30.1%
20% -36.7% 27% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1079 / 639
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1718 / 1718
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records