Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c98…0797 crypto 69 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-6%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day148.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$47
economics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -24.1% -31.3% 39% 18% -14.1%
≤30d 69 -23.8% -31.1% 38% 20% -19.3%
≤90d 69 -23.8% -31.1% 38% 20% -19.3%
all 69 -23.8% -31.1% 38% 20% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 20% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 20% -27.0%
15% -43.7% 16% -34.1%
20% -49.2% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day148.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$13 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records