Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c99…5351 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$764 (-40%) realized −$756 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -54.4% -58.8% 13% 13% -57.3%
≤30d 15 -54.4% -58.8% 13% 13% -57.3%
≤90d 15 -54.4% -58.8% 13% 13% -57.3%
all 15 -54.4% -58.8% 13% 13% -57.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 13% -57.3%
10% -62.7% 13% -61.4%
15% -66.3% 13% -65.1%
20% -69.6% 13% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$98 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$756
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Morocco 21¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 22¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$332 +325%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $102 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $102 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $102 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $102 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $102 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $102 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $102 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.95 · official $391.99 (match) · 34 history records