Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c9a…c84a sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+5%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$25
14 days+$18
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 44% -12.1%
≤30d 18 +3.9% -6.0% 72% 56% -3.7%
≤90d 18 +3.9% -6.0% 72% 56% -3.7%
all 18 +3.9% -6.0% 72% 56% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 56% -3.7%
10% -15.0% 33% -13.0%
15% -23.2% 22% -21.4%
20% -30.7% 6% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$36 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage15d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $68 −$17 -25%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $45 +$21 +48%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $45 −$45 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $85 +$23 +27%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $109 −$24 -22%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $150 −$41 -27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $107 +$38 +36%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $147 +$18 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $145 +$2 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $88 +$19 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$18 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $58 +$12 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $33 +$25 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $85 −$51 -60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $74 +$11 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $72 +$2 +3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $66 +$6 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $44 +$22 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $51 55m
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $68 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $45 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $45 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $85 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $0 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $85 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $109 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $0 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $109 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $150 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $147 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $146 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $145 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $107 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $88 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $70 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $58 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $33 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $33 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $85 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records