Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c9b…994d weather 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3500 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,568 (-892%) realized −$3,721 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3500.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$175
other 18% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3500 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.7%
≤30d 50 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.7%
≤90d 50 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.7%
all 50 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3500.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -92.8% 0% -92.7%
10% ← realistic here -93.5% 0% -93.4%
15% -94.1% 0% -94.1%
20% -94.7% 0% -94.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
32.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized−$3,721
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 50
Open positions157
Markets (closed)50 / 107
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3500.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 157 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $61 +$20 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $34 $51 +$17 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $34 +$11 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $43 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $15 −$16 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $13 +$9 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 8°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+50%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on June 2 Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 37°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 28? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on June 28 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 42°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on June 12? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 43°C or higher on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 12? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 12? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 12? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C or higher on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.48 · official $912.49 (match) · 3500 history records