Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6ca0…c64c sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+8%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%110W / 80L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$12
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$29
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +13.3% +2.5% 56% 56% +5.9%
≤30d 146 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 57% +3.0%
≤90d 190 +4.8% -5.2% 58% 56% +0.9%
all 190 +4.8% -5.2% 58% 56% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 56% +0.9%
10% -14.3% 56% -8.7%
15% -22.5% 52% -17.5%
20% -30.1% 45% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses110 / 80
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 195
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 23 $1 $0 +30%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $1 +$1 +56%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $1 +$2 +152%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $1 −$1 -52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $1 +$1 +124%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $1 +$1 +65%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $1 $0 -27%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $1 +$1 +119%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $1 +$1 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $1 $0 -10%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $1 $0 -22%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $1 +$1 +51%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $2 +$5 +238%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $1 +$5 +509%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Kia Tigers 100¢ $1 1h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $2 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 51¢ $1 8h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 39¢ $1 8h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 63¢ $1 8h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kia Tigers 76¢ $1 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $1 18h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $1 18h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $1 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ $0 42h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $0 43h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 85¢ $2 44h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $1 47h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $1 47h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $1 47h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 47h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $1 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $2 2d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $1 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 62¢ $1 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees $0 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $1 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $1 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 2d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $2 3d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions $0 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 57¢ $1 3d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 44¢ $1 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $1 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records