Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6C 0x6ca2…772e crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+16%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%33W / 10L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +13.3% +2.6% 77% 77% +2.5%
≤30d 43 +13.3% +2.6% 77% 77% +2.5%
≤90d 43 +13.3% +2.6% 77% 77% +2.5%
all 43 +13.3% +2.6% 77% 77% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 77% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 77% -7.3%
15% -16.2% 40% -16.2%
20% -24.4% 16% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses33 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records