Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6ca3…9972 crypto 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+10%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%132W / 48L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +13.8% +3.0% 42% 42% -12.9%
≤30d 33 +13.8% +3.0% 42% 42% -12.9%
≤90d 33 +13.8% +3.0% 42% 42% -12.9%
all 180 +4.8% -5.2% 73% 47% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 47% -5.7%
10% -14.2% 33% -14.7%
15% -22.5% 25% -23.0%
20% -30.1% 17% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses132 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage182d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$32 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$16 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$46 +1091%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$16 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$6 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$4 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 30 $10 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 30 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 30 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 30 $7 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 30 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 30 $6 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 29 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 29 $4 +$1 +27%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 29 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 29 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 29 $4 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 29 $3 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 29 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$1 -43%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records