Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ca4…348f sports 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,749 (-8%) realized −$6,734 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%68W / 137L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$850est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days−$2,547
14 days−$4,708
30 days−$10,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$5,004
crypto 34% −$3,122
other 5% −$480
world 1% −$56
culture 0% +$54
politics 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -32.3% -38.7% 37% 32% -36.8%
≤30d 191 -11.9% -20.2% 32% 30% -21.0%
≤90d 202 -6.7% -15.6% 34% 32% -18.7%
all 205 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 31% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 31% -18.8%
10% -24.6% 31% -26.6%
15% -31.9% 29% -33.7%
20% -38.6% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$504) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$445 vs −$284 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$6,734
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses68 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$850
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage155d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $59 $44 −$15 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $318 +$193 +61%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $243 +$177 +73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $509 −$505 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $612 −$600 -98%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $846 +$277 +33%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $399 +$446 +112%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$98 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $60 +$40 +67%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $352 −$344 -98%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $1,431 −$1,415 -99%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $446 −$26 -6%
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Udvardy (+1.5) Jun 10 $487 −$479 -98%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $961 −$95 -10%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $871 +$54 +6%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $465 +$237 +51%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $305 +$252 +82%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $777 +$333 +43%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $502 +$92 +18%
Set 1 Winner: Struff vs Bublik Jun 10 $407 −$400 -98%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $81 −$1 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1,771 +$1,172 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $134 +$160 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $421 −$400 -95%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $1,085 −$1,063 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $184 −$179 -97%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $118 −$115 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $240 −$234 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $409 −$400 -98%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $195 −$190 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $996 −$988 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1,463 −$1,440 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $8,327 +$2,777 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $183 −$179 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $611 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $234 +$214 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $346 +$340 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 29 $437 −$420 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $410 +$372 +91%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Karolina Muchova May 29 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 96¢ $512 12m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $318 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 24¢ $102 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $420 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 57¢ $243 3h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $61 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 17h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 74¢ $509 21h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 25¢ $102 21h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 35¢ $510 21h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $1,123 22h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 74¢ $846 23h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $846 23h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $399 26h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 23¢ $94 27h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 21¢ $28 27h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 44¢ $71 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 90¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 3d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Martin Damm 26¢ $121 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 58¢ $420 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 40¢ $420 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 41¢ $446 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 66¢ $1,010 6d
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Udvardy (+1.5) BUY Snigur 48¢ $487 6d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch SELL Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ $866 6d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Martin Damm 22¢ $231 6d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 89¢ $570 6d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Vitaliy Sachko 99¢ $702 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.13 · official $44.13 (match) · 516 history records